AFC Fantasy Draft Notes
With draft season upon us in full force, it's worth checking the barometer of each team for players rising and falling due to training camp and preseason performances. Today's column will stroll through the AFC, and we'll return with the NFC teams on Thursday. Together, the two columns will hopefully make for a handy information-packed compliment to your cheat sheets.
AFC East
Bills: Trent Edwards and the first-team offense have yet to find the end zone in nine series this preaseason. … T.O.'s ADP is holding steady at mid-third round even with the toe injury. He's always a good bet for double-digit TDs, but drafters will want to consider holding off until the fourth round until he makes it through a couple of full practices. … Lee Evans, a WR2 with upside, is still going in the sixth round.
Dolphins Even though he's currently running as the No. 2 starter, Brian Hartline is a poor bet for fantasy value. Target Davone Bess instead, especially in PPR leagues. … Ronnie Brown, who is currently sporting a third-round ADP, looked fantastic in Saturday's game against the Panthers. You won't find many RB2s with a higher upside. … Ted Ginn, a popular breakout candidate, has been quiet in preseason action. … Chad Pennington is getting no respect as the 23rd QB off the board. To be fair, he has a much tougher schedule this season.
Jets Stay away from the Jets quarterback regardless of who wins the competition. … Jerricho Cotchery makes for a fine WR3 and Dustin Keller is a late-round TE to target. Other than that, avoid the Jets passing game like the plague. … Leon Washington is in line for a bigger role this year and is a much better value in the 10th round than Thomas Jones is in the fifth. Washington makes for an ideal flex in leagues that start 10 players. … Rookie Shonn Greene may have a tough time finding consistent carries early in the season.
Patriots Tom Brady took a big hit and kept on ticking against the Bengals. If he stays healthy, he's a safe bet to throw up more TDs than Drew Brees. … Fred Taylor started the second preseason game after Laurence Maroney started the first. Taylor looks like the Week 1 starter, though Maroney has a higher fantasy ceiling. … Chris Baker has the early edge on Ben Watson at tight end. … Joey Galloway's fantasy production will be far too inconsistent as the Pats' No. 3 receiver.
AFC North
Bengals Chad Ochocinco is flashing Pro Bowl form once again and has seen his ADP rise from mid-fifth to early fourth round over the past couple of months. He could post WR1 stats if Carson Palmer stays healthy. … The enigmatic Chris Henry is now being drafted as a borderline WR3/WR4. While he has an outside shot at double digit touchdowns, we still wonder if he's going to see enough targets to be a weekly asset. … Brian Leonard is maintaining an edge on rookie Bernard Scott for the backup job. Consider Scott more of an in-season waiver possibility.
Browns Over-hyped rookie Brian Robiskie has been invisible since training camp started, while fellow rookie Mohamed Massaquoi is pushing Josh Cribbs for the No. 2 job. Outside of Braylon Edwards, it's a good idea to stay away from the Browns passing game. … Rookie sixth-round RB James Davis followed up an impressive training camp with an eye-opening performance against the Lions. He's not likely to threaten Jamal Lewis' starting job in Week 1, but he's looming as a potential replacement should Lewis start slowly.
Ravens With Mark Clayton injured and Demetrius Williams struggling to put in a full week of practice, the Ravens have a glaring hole opposite Derrick Mason. Expect Mason to continue receiving plenty of targets as the go-to guy. … Ray Rice is beginning to put some distance between himself and Willis McGahee. We already considered him a candidate for 50+ receptions, and his presence at the goal-line in Monday's game is promising. Rice is still hanging around the Joseph Addai/Thomas Jones range in most drafts, which is absurd. He'll out-perform that draft spot. … Stay away from Ravens tight ends. Neither Todd Heap nor L.J. Smith can stay healthy.
Steelers Limas Sweed maintains an edge on Shaun McDonald and rookie Mike Wallace for the No. 3 receiver job. … Rashard Mendenhall has done nothing to stand out in preseason action. Still, Willie Parker is no more than a RB3 with Mewelde Moore as the third-down back and goal-line carries still up in the air. … Dennis Dixon's shoulder injury means that Charlie Batch will likely keep his No. 2 job behind Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben (Achilles) should be fine for the season opener after receiving a scare in practice late last week.
<!--RW-->
AFC South
Colts Pierre Garcon may have received all of the offseason hype, but it's rookie Austin Collie who is the frontrunner for the No. 3 receiver job. … With hot-shot rookie Donald Brown sharing the rock, Joseph Addai is a poor pick at his current late fifth-round ADP. Addai simply doesn't have the consistency or the fantasy upside to merit RB2 status. … For some unknown reason, conventional wisdom has placed Peyton Manning well behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady in the QB pecking order. He's a fine value in the third round.
Jaguars While Mike Sims-Walker is nursing yet another leg injury, former high-profile bust Troy Williamson is making a serious run at the starting job opposite Torry Hot. Deep balls can be fluky, especially in preseason action (just ask David Clowney and Robert Meachem), but the former No. 7 overall pick has coach Jack Del Rio's attention. … Rookie RB Rashad Jennings' recent groin injury may have opened the door wide enough to allow FB Greg Jones to regain the backup job behind Maurice Jones-Drew. Jennings would be the better pickup if MJD missed time with an injury.
Texans Coach Gary Kubiak has not come out and anointed Chris Brown as the goal-line/short-yardage back, though we expect Brown to assume that role. Steve Slaton will be sharing the ball more than he did to close out last season. … Kevin Walter is being overdrafted as a WR3 ahead of Jerricho Cotchery and Donald Driver. He won't match last year's TD total, and his ceiling is that of a WR4/WR5. … Matt Schaub, owner of a 78.3% completion rate in the preaseason, is one of our favorite QB values as the ninth or tenth QB off the board.
Titans The rookies are getting a lot of love in Titans camp, but fantasy value will be fleeting. TE Jared Cook is much more appropriate for Dynasty leagues, and RB Javon Ringer is still a poor bet for 50+ offensive touches behind Chris Johnson and LenDale White. … Kenny Britt, though, could start the season opener opposite Justin Gage after Nate Washington suffered a hamstring injury on Monday. Washington, whose value had been steadily climbing, is now nothing more than a late-round WR5. … If you're smitten with LenDale's 15 TDs last season, keep in mind that touchdowns are fickle from season-to-season. Do you really want to risk the goose egg each week if Patron's favorite customer gets shut out of the end zone?
AFC West
Broncos Brandon Marshall, even with an early-season suspension, instilled more confidence last season as Jay Cutler's go-to WR. Between the hip/hamstring injury, the trade demands/outbursts, an offense that spreads the ball around, and Kyle Orton's lack of arm strength, Marshall simply isn't worth the dice roll this year. Target Eddie Royal as a WR2 instead … Jabar Gaffney's is solely dependant on Marshall being out of the lineup. Even then, he's still Jabar Gaffney. Keep expectations in line … Despite his three-interception performance against the Niners, this remains Orton's offense. Don't pick Chris Simms thinking you have a sleeper … Knowshon Moreno will be back by Week 1, though it's fair to question whether he'll be worked back in slowly early in the season. None of the other backs are worth using in the meantime.
Chargers Despite the injury risk and the known effects of age and workload on older RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson is still going in the Top-6 picks. That's too rich for our blood. … Vincent Jackson's value has been climbing, and he's now going where he should be: as a high-end WR2 in the mid-fourth round. … Antonio Gates is healthy for the first time in two years and has a good shot to regain his spot as the fantasy king at tight end. … Keep in mind that Philip Rivers' touchdown percentage (7.1) from last season is unrepeatable. For instance, Peyton Manning has only posted a rate above 6.2 once in his career. Rivers will be closer to 25 TDs this season.
Chiefs Pay no attention to coach Todd Haley's mind games with Dwayne Bowe. D-Bo is the only worthwhile receiving talent on the roster and will be targeted heavily by Matt Cassel. … Speaking of Cassel, he's still being drafted too high in the tenth round. He has little pocket awareness, his offensive line is in shambles, and his receivers are a motley crew. … Larry Johnson has held off Jamaal Charles, but he's still a reach in the early fifth round. Stay far away from LJ in PPR leagues.
Raiders Oakland WRs are off limits following Chaz Schilens' foot injury. Schilens makes for a decent late-round flier, but he's not going to make an impact early in the season. … Zach Miller remains an underappreciated late-round TE as a rock-solid TE2 with a TE1 ceiling. He finished sixth in yardage last season. … Justin Fargas' recent hamstring injury is taking the suspense out of the starting tailback race. Regardless, this is now Darren McFadden's offense. He'll be featured heavily and should be targeted in all PPR leagues. Michael Bush is good for a late-round flier while Fargas should go undrafted. He was a weekly fantasy albatross last season even with consistent carries.
With draft season upon us in full force, it's worth checking the barometer of each team for players rising and falling due to training camp and preseason performances. Today's column will stroll through the AFC, and we'll return with the NFC teams on Thursday. Together, the two columns will hopefully make for a handy information-packed compliment to your cheat sheets.
AFC East
Bills: Trent Edwards and the first-team offense have yet to find the end zone in nine series this preaseason. … T.O.'s ADP is holding steady at mid-third round even with the toe injury. He's always a good bet for double-digit TDs, but drafters will want to consider holding off until the fourth round until he makes it through a couple of full practices. … Lee Evans, a WR2 with upside, is still going in the sixth round.
Dolphins Even though he's currently running as the No. 2 starter, Brian Hartline is a poor bet for fantasy value. Target Davone Bess instead, especially in PPR leagues. … Ronnie Brown, who is currently sporting a third-round ADP, looked fantastic in Saturday's game against the Panthers. You won't find many RB2s with a higher upside. … Ted Ginn, a popular breakout candidate, has been quiet in preseason action. … Chad Pennington is getting no respect as the 23rd QB off the board. To be fair, he has a much tougher schedule this season.
Jets Stay away from the Jets quarterback regardless of who wins the competition. … Jerricho Cotchery makes for a fine WR3 and Dustin Keller is a late-round TE to target. Other than that, avoid the Jets passing game like the plague. … Leon Washington is in line for a bigger role this year and is a much better value in the 10th round than Thomas Jones is in the fifth. Washington makes for an ideal flex in leagues that start 10 players. … Rookie Shonn Greene may have a tough time finding consistent carries early in the season.
Patriots Tom Brady took a big hit and kept on ticking against the Bengals. If he stays healthy, he's a safe bet to throw up more TDs than Drew Brees. … Fred Taylor started the second preseason game after Laurence Maroney started the first. Taylor looks like the Week 1 starter, though Maroney has a higher fantasy ceiling. … Chris Baker has the early edge on Ben Watson at tight end. … Joey Galloway's fantasy production will be far too inconsistent as the Pats' No. 3 receiver.
AFC North
Bengals Chad Ochocinco is flashing Pro Bowl form once again and has seen his ADP rise from mid-fifth to early fourth round over the past couple of months. He could post WR1 stats if Carson Palmer stays healthy. … The enigmatic Chris Henry is now being drafted as a borderline WR3/WR4. While he has an outside shot at double digit touchdowns, we still wonder if he's going to see enough targets to be a weekly asset. … Brian Leonard is maintaining an edge on rookie Bernard Scott for the backup job. Consider Scott more of an in-season waiver possibility.
Browns Over-hyped rookie Brian Robiskie has been invisible since training camp started, while fellow rookie Mohamed Massaquoi is pushing Josh Cribbs for the No. 2 job. Outside of Braylon Edwards, it's a good idea to stay away from the Browns passing game. … Rookie sixth-round RB James Davis followed up an impressive training camp with an eye-opening performance against the Lions. He's not likely to threaten Jamal Lewis' starting job in Week 1, but he's looming as a potential replacement should Lewis start slowly.
Ravens With Mark Clayton injured and Demetrius Williams struggling to put in a full week of practice, the Ravens have a glaring hole opposite Derrick Mason. Expect Mason to continue receiving plenty of targets as the go-to guy. … Ray Rice is beginning to put some distance between himself and Willis McGahee. We already considered him a candidate for 50+ receptions, and his presence at the goal-line in Monday's game is promising. Rice is still hanging around the Joseph Addai/Thomas Jones range in most drafts, which is absurd. He'll out-perform that draft spot. … Stay away from Ravens tight ends. Neither Todd Heap nor L.J. Smith can stay healthy.
Steelers Limas Sweed maintains an edge on Shaun McDonald and rookie Mike Wallace for the No. 3 receiver job. … Rashard Mendenhall has done nothing to stand out in preseason action. Still, Willie Parker is no more than a RB3 with Mewelde Moore as the third-down back and goal-line carries still up in the air. … Dennis Dixon's shoulder injury means that Charlie Batch will likely keep his No. 2 job behind Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben (Achilles) should be fine for the season opener after receiving a scare in practice late last week.
<!--RW-->
AFC South
Colts Pierre Garcon may have received all of the offseason hype, but it's rookie Austin Collie who is the frontrunner for the No. 3 receiver job. … With hot-shot rookie Donald Brown sharing the rock, Joseph Addai is a poor pick at his current late fifth-round ADP. Addai simply doesn't have the consistency or the fantasy upside to merit RB2 status. … For some unknown reason, conventional wisdom has placed Peyton Manning well behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady in the QB pecking order. He's a fine value in the third round.
Jaguars While Mike Sims-Walker is nursing yet another leg injury, former high-profile bust Troy Williamson is making a serious run at the starting job opposite Torry Hot. Deep balls can be fluky, especially in preseason action (just ask David Clowney and Robert Meachem), but the former No. 7 overall pick has coach Jack Del Rio's attention. … Rookie RB Rashad Jennings' recent groin injury may have opened the door wide enough to allow FB Greg Jones to regain the backup job behind Maurice Jones-Drew. Jennings would be the better pickup if MJD missed time with an injury.
Texans Coach Gary Kubiak has not come out and anointed Chris Brown as the goal-line/short-yardage back, though we expect Brown to assume that role. Steve Slaton will be sharing the ball more than he did to close out last season. … Kevin Walter is being overdrafted as a WR3 ahead of Jerricho Cotchery and Donald Driver. He won't match last year's TD total, and his ceiling is that of a WR4/WR5. … Matt Schaub, owner of a 78.3% completion rate in the preaseason, is one of our favorite QB values as the ninth or tenth QB off the board.
Titans The rookies are getting a lot of love in Titans camp, but fantasy value will be fleeting. TE Jared Cook is much more appropriate for Dynasty leagues, and RB Javon Ringer is still a poor bet for 50+ offensive touches behind Chris Johnson and LenDale White. … Kenny Britt, though, could start the season opener opposite Justin Gage after Nate Washington suffered a hamstring injury on Monday. Washington, whose value had been steadily climbing, is now nothing more than a late-round WR5. … If you're smitten with LenDale's 15 TDs last season, keep in mind that touchdowns are fickle from season-to-season. Do you really want to risk the goose egg each week if Patron's favorite customer gets shut out of the end zone?
AFC West
Broncos Brandon Marshall, even with an early-season suspension, instilled more confidence last season as Jay Cutler's go-to WR. Between the hip/hamstring injury, the trade demands/outbursts, an offense that spreads the ball around, and Kyle Orton's lack of arm strength, Marshall simply isn't worth the dice roll this year. Target Eddie Royal as a WR2 instead … Jabar Gaffney's is solely dependant on Marshall being out of the lineup. Even then, he's still Jabar Gaffney. Keep expectations in line … Despite his three-interception performance against the Niners, this remains Orton's offense. Don't pick Chris Simms thinking you have a sleeper … Knowshon Moreno will be back by Week 1, though it's fair to question whether he'll be worked back in slowly early in the season. None of the other backs are worth using in the meantime.
Chargers Despite the injury risk and the known effects of age and workload on older RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson is still going in the Top-6 picks. That's too rich for our blood. … Vincent Jackson's value has been climbing, and he's now going where he should be: as a high-end WR2 in the mid-fourth round. … Antonio Gates is healthy for the first time in two years and has a good shot to regain his spot as the fantasy king at tight end. … Keep in mind that Philip Rivers' touchdown percentage (7.1) from last season is unrepeatable. For instance, Peyton Manning has only posted a rate above 6.2 once in his career. Rivers will be closer to 25 TDs this season.
Chiefs Pay no attention to coach Todd Haley's mind games with Dwayne Bowe. D-Bo is the only worthwhile receiving talent on the roster and will be targeted heavily by Matt Cassel. … Speaking of Cassel, he's still being drafted too high in the tenth round. He has little pocket awareness, his offensive line is in shambles, and his receivers are a motley crew. … Larry Johnson has held off Jamaal Charles, but he's still a reach in the early fifth round. Stay far away from LJ in PPR leagues.
Raiders Oakland WRs are off limits following Chaz Schilens' foot injury. Schilens makes for a decent late-round flier, but he's not going to make an impact early in the season. … Zach Miller remains an underappreciated late-round TE as a rock-solid TE2 with a TE1 ceiling. He finished sixth in yardage last season. … Justin Fargas' recent hamstring injury is taking the suspense out of the starting tailback race. Regardless, this is now Darren McFadden's offense. He'll be featured heavily and should be targeted in all PPR leagues. Michael Bush is good for a late-round flier while Fargas should go undrafted. He was a weekly fantasy albatross last season even with consistent carries.
